Selective bibleographies for some transport model topics

Preliminary transport model design tasks: model specifications, travel, person and household segmentation, data collection, travel surveys, model estimation

Transport model development guidelines and checklists

Conference papers on specific transport modelling issues

Links to transport modelling guidance and technical references

Site map

Airport Surface Access

Airport Ground Access Planning Guide, RITA (Research and Innovative Technology Administration), US Department of Transportation, National Transport Library. Link.

Evaluating the Accessibility of U.S. Airports, Ho-Ling Hwang, Shih-Miao Chin, Janet Hobson, Felix Ammah-Tagoe, TRB Transportation Research Circular E-C026 - Personal Travel: The Long and Short of It.

Keys to success in airport rail links, Roland Niblett, Railway Gazette International, December 1995.

Airport Access via Rail Transit: What Works and What Doesn't, Schank and Wilson, 79th Annual Meeting of TRB, 2000.

Airport Access via Rail Transit: What Works and What Doesn't, Schank PhD, Link.

Study of Airport Access Mode Choice, Greig Harvey, American Society of Civil Engineers, Journal of Transport Engineering, Vol 112, No 5, Sept 1986.

AGRP (Airport Cooperative Research Program) Synthesis 5, Airport Ground Access Mode Choice Models, Geoffrey Gosling, TRB, 2008. This is an extensive review of airport surface access models internationally.

TCRP (Transit Cooperative Research Program) Report 62, Improving Public Transportation Access to Large Airports, Leigh Fisher, Matthew Coogan and MarketSense, TRB, 2000. This is a thorough and enlightening analysis of public transport access at a range of airports and the factors which influence the use of public transport for accessing airports specifically.

See also two of my papers on this topic.

Travel Demand Elasticities

For strategic models we need independent estimates of travel demand elasticities to verify the reasonableness of the model forecasts whereas, for the direct demand models commonly used in forecasting future air passenger demands and in interurban rail (and high speed rail) passenger demand forecasting, demand elasticities are directly incorporated in the models - sometimes these may be calibrated on local data but often they must be borrowed from external sources.

There are some well-known sources of elasticities: Victoria Transport Institute (Todd Litman, Canada), Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (UK), BITRE: Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport & Regional Economics (Australia) and TRACE (European Commission).

Unfortunately much evidence on elasticities is contained in unpublished work, but I give below a few other interesting sources.

Strategic Models

In work done in NZ and Australia, local evidence - the results obtained with other credible models, combined with research evidence - was used to support the validation of model sensitivity. The results of such tests, for travel demand measured in trips and trip kilometres, are illustrated here.

Passenger Demand Forecasting

Some golden oldies:

Future demand for rail transport, J. Prideaux, Transport and Energy, Institution of Civil Engineers, London 1980.

The Demand for Inter-City Rail Travel in the United Kingdom, I. Jones and A. Nichols, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, May 1983, UK.

The Elasticity of Travel Demand: a Review, Research Report ITS-RR-93-2, Paul Hooper, Institute of Transport Studies, University of Sydney, 1993.

New review of Australian travel demand elasticities, Research Report ARR 249, J. Luk and S. Hepburn, Australian Road Research Board 1993.

From NZ/Australia:

Australian Travel Demand Elasticities - an Update of the Evidence, I. Wallis and N. Schmidt, 26th Australian Transport Research Forum, 2003. Related to this is: Research Report 248, Review of passenger transport demand elasticities, Booz Allen Hamilton for the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA), 2004.

Mark Wardman of the Institute for Transport Studies at the University of Leeds has also published many papers on UK travel demand elasticities.

Air Passenger Forecasting

There is a large number of sources of elasticities for aviation forecasts in the literature - from researchers (see two examples below) and from aviation institutions such as the airports and government agencies (eg the UK Department of Transport Aviation forecasts, the Australian Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics, ICAO, IATA etc).

Air Travel Demand Elasticities: Concepts, Issues and Measurement, D. Gillen, W. Morrison and C Stewart, Department of Finance, Government of Canada.

Demand for air travel in the United States: bottom-up econometric estimation and implications for forecasts by origin and destination, Journal of Air Transportation, Vol 8, 2003.

Generalised Cost Parameters

A foundation of most model systems is generalised cost which, in the dim and distant past, was often estimated as a part of model development but is now more frequently derived from either stated preference studies (witness the proliferation of value of time studies) or best practice inferred from an accumulation of other studies. Aside from the value of time the parameters of most interest are those which describe a public transport journey, ie the relative weightings on access, egress, journey time, crowding, service frequency etc. The major sources which I have used are listed below.

Mark Wardman of the Institute of Transport Studies, Leeds University has written and published a large amount of material, mainly meta analyses, of the valuations of the components of public transport travel time.

The demand for public transport: a practical guide, TRL Report 593, 2004.

PDFH, the UK rail Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook.

Valuation of Public Transport Attributes, Research Report 184 Booz Allen & Hamilton for the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA), 2000.


A few interesting papers covering what is a large topic follow.

Predicting Best with Imperfect Data, William Alonso, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, Volume 34, Issue 4, 1968.

Uncertainty in the Context of Highway Appraisal, D. Ashley, Transportation Vol 9, 1980.

Twenty-one sources of error and bias in project appraisal, P. Mackie and J. Preston, Trasnport Policy Vol 5 1998.

Inaccuracy in Traffic Forecasts, B. Flyvbjerg, M. Skamris Holm and S. Buhl, Transport Reviews 2006, Taylor & Francis.