David Ashley CV


Preliminary transport model design tasks: model specifications, travel, person and household segmentation, data collection, travel surveys, model estimation

Transport model development guidelines and checklists

Conference papers on specific transport modelling issues

Links to transport modelling guidance and technical references

Site map


MBA Brunel University, 1992

CTS Certificate in Transport Studies, London University, 1974

BSc Mathematics, Special Honours, Upper Second, Bristol University, 1968

Past Affiliations (now, with retirement, cancelled)

Chartered Mathematician

Fellow, Institute of Mathematics and its Applications

Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Transport

Member, Association of Project Managers

Associate Fellow, Australian Institute of Management


Proprietor, TDF (transport demand forecasting) Advisory Services: current

Senior Principal, Sinclair Knight Merz, Australia: 1997 to 2013

Deputy Managing Director, The MVA Consultancy, UK: 1976 to 1997

Consultant, Peat Marwick Mitchell & Co, UK: 1974 to 1976

Analyst, Departments of the Environment and Transport, UK: 1972 to 1974

Examples of Modelling Experience

Rail Models:

Large model systems:

Roads Models:


Aviation models:

Independent model reviews:

Other Activities

Guest Editor, Special Issue: Workshop on High Speed Rail, Transportation, Vol 14, No. 2 (1987).

Appointed to the Quality Assurance Panel of the 3 year World Business Council project on Sustainable Development (2001-2003).

Author of Transport Modelling chapter in the textbook "Traffic Engineering and Management" published by Monash University, Victoria in 2004.

Conference Papers

The National Traffic Model Intrazonal Costs, MAU Note 248, Department of the Environment, 1974.

The RHTM Home-Based Trip End Model, PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, 1978.

Uncertainty in Interurban Highway Scheme Appraisal, New Horizons in Travel Behaviour Research, P. R. Stopher, A. N. Meyburg, W. Brog, Lexington Books, 1978.

Uncertainty in the Context of Highway Appraisal, Transportation, Vol. 9, Elsevier Publishing Company, 1980.

The Dutch Long Distance Travel Study - Basic Concepts, jointly with M G Richards, Colloquium Vervoersplanologisch Speurwerk, The Hague, 1980.

Modelling Concepts for Forecasting Long Distance Travel in the Netherlands, jointly with A Baanders, PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, 1982.

Economic Effects on Transport and Travel - Some Evidence from the United Kingdom, jointly with J J Bates, 10th Transportation Research Colloquium on Transportation and Stagnation, The Netherlands, 1983.

Using the 1981 Census to Validate Local Car Ownership Forecasts, jointly with J J Bates, 10th Transportation Research Colloquium on Transportation and Stagnation, The Netherlands, 1983.

The Temporal Stability of Household Car Travel, jointly with D Broome, PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, 1984.

A Model of Long Distance Travel in The Netherlands, jointly with A Baanders, International Seminar on the Social Aspects of High Speed Trains, Paris, 1984.

Forecasting Mode Choice for Long Distance Travel, jointly with S Lowe, Colloquium Vervoersplanologisch Speurwerk, The Hague, 1984.

The Long Distance Travel Model for The Netherlands: its Estimation and Application in the Evaluation of the Zuiderzee Railway and Other Studies, PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, 1985.

Passenger Forecasts for the Paris-Brussels-Amsterdam/Cologne High Speed Rail Line Study, jointly with K Kooman and T van der Star, Colloquium Vervoersplanologisch Speurwerk, The Netherlands, 1986.

International Travel and the High Speed Rail Alternative: Some Issues in Travel Forecasting, jointly with A. Baanders, Fifth International Conference on Travel Behaviour, Aix-en-Provence, 1987.

The Nested Incremental Logit Model: Theory and Application to Mode Choice, jointly with J. J. Bates and G. Hyman, PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, 1987.

Development of a Transportation Model for London, jointly with P Capell and J Hollis, PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, 1988.

Leisure Travel by Air in the Netherlands, jointly with J. de Wit, Colloquium Vervoersplanologisch Speurwerk, 1990.

BUSADS: Bus Audience Data System, jointly with C. Dekker, IMA Conference on business modelling, 1992.

The Competition Model for Schiphol Airport, jointly with P. Hanson and J. Veldhuis, PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, 1994.

Comprehensive Forecasting Model for the New Hong Kong Airport at Chek Lap Kok, jointly with P Hanson, F Brown and E Cheng, PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, 1995.

Commercialisation, Funding and Transport Planning Experience in the UK and Europe, Wellington 1998.

Strategic Transport Planning in New Zealand's Two Major Urban Areas, Auckland and Wellington, jointly with A W Brennand and D Houghton, 23rd Australian Transport Research Forum, 1999.

Ground Access to London's Heathrow Airport, Airports 99, 1999.

Why Road Pricing in Australia - Contrasts With International Experience, jointly with Peter Prince, Road Pricing - Progressing the Electronic Pricing Agenda, Brisbane, 2000.

A Rail Freight Forecasting Model for the Strategic Rail Authority; John Hawthorn and Ian Brooker, Sinclair Knight Merz UK and Caroline Hughes, Strategic Rail Authority, UK. Presented at the European Transport Conference 2002.

Airport Rail Links: a Post Audit, Queensland Transport Infrastructure Conference 2002.

Difficult Experiences and Innovative Features of the Wellington Transport Strategy Model Development: Trip Distribution, Mode Choice, Networks and Model Validation, jointly with Daniel Brown, Andrew Murray, Mandy Liu, ATRF 2003 (Wellington).

Estimating Passenger Demand for Fast Rail Services with the Rooftop Model, jointly with Craig McPherson, ATRF 2004 (Adelaide).

Technical Support for Bus Service planning, jointly with Craig McPherson and Naomi Langdon, ATRF 2006.

The Suite of Surface Access Models Supporting the Expansion Plans for Stansted Airport, jointly with Daniel Brown, ATRF 2007.

The Impacts of Low Cost/No Frills Airlines on Airport Growth Forecasting, jointly with John Richardson, ATRF 2007.

Future Directions for Freight and Commercial Vehicle Modelling, jointly with Scott Elaurant, ATRF 2007.

Recent Information on the Under-reporting of Trips in Household Travel Surveys, jointly with Tony Richardson and David Young, ATRF 2009.